Alright, poker friends, let’s talk about something that every player experiences but doesn’t always fully understand—variance. Whether you're running hot or going through a rough downswing, variance is the invisible force that can swing your results in the short term. But here’s the thing: understanding variance is absolutely critical if you want to stay disciplined and keep improving your game. So, let’s break it down, to help you stay sharp at the tables.
What Is Variance in Poker?
Variance is all about the natural ups and downs in your poker results caused by luck and randomness. Even when you make the right plays, short-term outcomes don’t always go your way—and that’s just part of the game. It explains why you can get your money in with the best hand and still lose.
Example of Variance:
You’re all-in preflop with A-A against K-K. You’re a huge favorite, but variance means that 20% of the time, the Kings will hit and you’ll lose. Don’t worry—over the long run, making this play will be profitable, even if the short run sometime seems to run forever.
Positive and Negative Variance: The Roller Coaster of Poker
In poker, variance can work in your favor or against you:
- Positive Variance: This is when you experience a streak of favorable outcomes. Maybe you win multiple coin-flips in a row or keep hitting your draws. It feels great, but don’t let it create a false sense of security.
- Negative Variance: This is when you keep losing, even when you’re making the right decisions. Maybe you’re losing with strong hands like Aces or Kings over and over. It’s frustrating, but remember, it’s temporary.
Example:
You’re on a downswing—losing with strong hands like Aces. Even though you’re playing well, variance causes a temporary losing streak. Understanding this helps you stay calm and stick to your strategy.
Variance in Cash Games vs. Tournaments
The way variance affects you depends on the format you’re playing.
- Cash Games: Variance is usually lower in cash games because the structure is more stable. You can reload if you get hit with a bad beat and keep grinding.
- Tournaments: Variance runs wild in tournaments! With blinds increasing and fewer payouts, you could go long periods without cashing. But one big win can make up for it all.
How to Manage Variance: Stay Cool, Stay Disciplined
Variance can mess with your emotions, but there are ways to handle it like a pro:
- Bankroll Management:
Have a solid bankroll strategy. This lets you ride out the swings without going broke. The more buy-ins you have, the better you can handle a downswing.
- Emotional Stability:
Understand that variance is part of the game. Don’t go on tilt—stick to your strategy even when the cards aren’t going your way.
- Focus on Decisions, Not Results:
Poker is a long-term game. It’s about making the right decisions, not about short-term results. Don’t obsess over one bad beat—focus on the big picture.
Example:
After losing with a strong hand, remind yourself that you made the correct play. The loss was due to variance, not a mistake. By staying focused on good decision-making, you’ll continue playing optimally. If needed, take a break, go for a short walk – don’t play on tilt!
Dealing with Downswings: Riding Out the Storm
A downswing is an extended period of bad results, but even the best players face them. How you handle downswings determines your long-term success.
Coping Strategies:
- Move Down in Stakes: If your bankroll takes a hit, drop to lower stakes. It’ll protect your funds and give you time to rebuild confidence.
- Review Your Play: During a downswing, review your hands to make sure you’re not deviating from optimal strategy. This keeps you focused on improving, rather than blaming bad luck.
- Take Breaks: If you’re frustrated, take a break. A clear mindset is key for making good decisions.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term Results: The Bigger Picture
In the short term, variance can create wild swings. You’ll have streaks of wins and losses that don’t always reflect how well you’re playing. But in the long term, the quality of your decisions will always shine through. Skilled players profit because over a large sample of hands, good decisions beat variance.
Example:
Over 100 hands, variance could have you on a heater or in a downswing. But over 100,000 hands, your true win rate emerges, and the effects of variance smooth out.
Key Takeaways:
- Variance explains the natural ups and downs in poker results due to randomness.
- Managing positive and negative variance is key to maintaining a healthy bankroll and mindset.
- In cash games, variance is lower due to stable structures. In tournaments, variance is higher because of the big swings in payouts.
- Proper bankroll management and emotional stability are essential for handling downswings and staying focused on the long-term game.
- Always focus on making good decisions, not short-term results.
Final Thoughts:
Variance is one of those things in poker that you can’t control—but you can control how you react to it. By understanding and managing variance, you’ll stay confident, keep your bankroll intact, and continue improving your game. So the next time variance hits you with a bad beat or a downswing, just remember—it’s all part of the process. Stay focused on making smart decisions, and the long-term results will take care of themselves.
Got any variance stories of your own? Let’s hear them in the comments—there’s always something to learn from the roller coaster ride that is poker!
See you at the tables!
Alon Marcus