Hey everyone,
Today, I want to dive into something that might sound a bit technical but trust me, it's a game-changer for your poker strategy: Expected Value (EV). You don’t need to be a math genius to be a winning player. In fact, many successful players aren't math whizzes, but a little bit of math is essential. I've simplified the explanations as much as possible, and even if it doesn't click right away, don't be discouraged. The more you play, the more intuitive these calculations will become. So, let's roll the dice on this concept.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value isn't just a fancy term we throw around to sound smart at the poker tables. It's fundamental to making smart decisions. In simple terms, EV is what you expect to win or lose on average from a bet if you could play the same hand repeatedly under identical conditions.
Here’s the formula: EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost)
Why Should You Care?
Imagine you’re holding pocket Aces and go all-in against someone with pocket Kings. It seems like a solid win, right? Let’s do the math: If your chance of winning is 80% and the pot is 20,000 chips, your EV looks like this:
EV = (0.8 * 20000) - (0.2 * 20000) = 16000 - 4000 = 12000 chips
This means, on average, you stand to gain 12,000 chips every time this scenario plays out. Pretty cool, right? It doesn’t guarantee a win every time—as we’ve all experienced losses—but it does affirm that shoving pre-flop is the correct move. “Luck” can sway short-term results, but high-volume plays will show significant profits in the long run.
Real Poker Scenarios
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Drawing to a Flush: You’re eyeing a flush draw, which materializes about 20% of the time. Suppose there’s 10,000 chips in the pot, and it costs you 2,000 chips to call. Here’s the EV calculation:
EV = (0.2 * 10000) - (0.8 * 2000) = 2000 - 1600 = 400 chips
That’s a positive EV, meaning statistically, it’s a good call.
Now, this concept works in reverse, too. Say you hold top pair top kicker and the flop comes with two clubs. You're heads up against one player who you believe is on the flush draw. How much should you bet to force him to make a mistake, or what would be your bet to make his call a negative EV?
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To Bluff or Not to Bluff: Let’s talk about bluffing. Knowing your EV can help decide whether a bluff could be profitable. Suppose you push a big bluff, estimating a 30% chance your opponent folds. If the pot's 12,000 chips and your bet is 3,000, the EV would look like this:
EV = (0.3 * 12000) - (0.7 * 3000) = 3600 - 2100 = 1500 chips
You’re thinking long-term, considering what you stand to gain or lose over many similar situations.
EV is Not Everything
While EV is crucial, there are times to fold even if your calculations show a positive EV. Consider this scenario in an online Sit & Go tournament: five players left, you’re on the button with pocket Aces. UTG raises, MP goes all-in, and the cutoff shoves. Despite positive EV, the right tournament strategy might be to fold, hoping to climb the payout ladder and find a better spot to double up.
Wrapping It Up
Understanding EV is more than crunching numbers; it's about making informed decisions that boost your long-term winnings. Whether deciding on a bold bluff or contemplating a flush chase, EV helps you focus on the plays that count.
I’d love to hear how you use EV in your games or any poker math questions you might have. Drop a comment or shoot me a message on our social media platforms!
Until next time, see you at the tables!
Cheers, Alon Marcus