Hey you all!
When you’re drawing to a big hand, knowing when to call can be tricky. That’s where implied odds come in. Unlike pot odds, which focus on the immediate pot, implied odds consider the future money you can win if you hit your draw. Understanding implied odds can be a game-changer, helping you make profitable decisions when chasing draws. Let’s dive into how implied odds work and when to use them in your poker strategy.
What Are Implied Odds?
Implied odds measure the potential future winnings from your opponent when you hit your drawing hand. Essentially, you’re thinking ahead—how much can you expect to win on later streets if you complete your draw?
Formula:
Implied Odds = (Current Pot + Future Bets You Expect to Win) / Cost of the Call
Example:
You’re holding 8-7 of hearts, and the flop shows Ah-9c-5h. The pot is 1,000 chips, and your opponent bets 500. While your immediate pot odds aren’t great, you estimate you can win an additional 2,000 chips if you hit your flush, making the call profitable thanks to implied odds.
Pot Odds vs. Implied Odds
Pot Odds:
Pot odds are based on the current pot size relative to the cost of your call. This helps you determine if it’s mathematically correct to continue based solely on the present pot size.
Implied Odds:
Implied odds take it a step further, considering the future potential winnings if you hit your hand. They’re especially helpful when you’re on a draw that could win a big pot, even if the current pot odds aren’t favorable.
Example:
You’re drawing to a flush with J-10 of diamonds, and your opponent bets 500 into a 1,500-chip pot. Your pot odds are 3:1—not quite good enough to justify a call. But if you estimate that you can win another 1,500 chips if you hit your flush, your implied odds make the call profitable.
When to Consider Implied Odds
- Deep Stack Situations: Implied odds are higher when both you and your opponent have deep stacks. With more chips behind, you stand to win bigger pots if you hit your draw.
Example:
You hold 6-5 suited, and the flop comes K-7-4. Your opponent bets, and while the pot odds aren’t great, you both have deep stacks. This makes your implied odds higher, as you could win a big pot if you hit your straight.
- Against Loose Players: Loose players are gold for implied odds. They’ll often call with weaker hands, so if you hit your draw, you’re more likely to get paid off as they are much more likely to call your bet on later streets.
Example:
You’re holding A-4 suited, and a loose opponent bets on a 9-7-3 board with two of your suit. Even though your immediate pot odds are slim, your implied odds are strong because your loose opponent will likely call future bets if you hit your flush.
- Multi-Way Pots: Implied odds increase in multi-way pots because you can win from multiple players, boosting your potential future earnings.
Example:
You have 9-8 of spades, and the flop comes K-Q-7 with two spades. With three players in the pot, your implied odds grow, making a call more attractive since you could win a large pot if you complete your flush.
How to Calculate Implied Odds
- Determine Your Pot Odds: Start by calculating the current pot odds—divide the size of the pot by the cost of your call.
- Estimate Future Bets: Think about how much more you can win if you hit your draw. Consider factors like your opponent’s stack size and playing style.
- Add Future Bets to the Pot: Add the potential future winnings to the current pot size.
- Calculate Implied Odds: Divide the total potential pot by the cost of the call to get your implied odds.
Example:
If the pot is 1,200 chips and your opponent bets 600, and you estimate winning an additional 1,500 chips if you hit your hand, your implied odds become 4.5:1—much more attractive!
When Not to Rely on Implied Odds
- Against Short Stacks: Implied odds drop significantly against short stacks. If your opponent doesn’t have many chips left behind, there isn’t enough money to justify chasing your draw.
Example:
You hold A-5 of spades and face an all-in from a short-stacked opponent. Since they have no more chips to bet on future streets, implied odds don’t apply, and the pot odds alone should guide your decision.
- Against Tight Players: Tight players rarely pay off big bets unless they have a monster hand. This makes your implied odds lower because it’s unlikely they’ll continue paying you if you hit your draw.
Example:
You’re drawing to a straight against a tight player who only continues with strong hands. Even if your immediate odds seem okay, your implied odds are low because the tight player won’t call unless they have the nuts.
Reverse Implied Odds
Reverse implied odds occur when hitting your draw might still lead to losing a big pot. This happens when your opponent has a stronger draw or already holds a better hand that will beat you even if you improve.
Example:
You hold 9-8, and the flop comes J-T-5. While you have an open-ended straight draw, if your opponent has K-Q, they’re drawing to a higher straight. Even if you hit your straight, reverse implied odds suggest you could still lose a big pot.
Implied Odds for Different Draws
- Flush Draws: Implied odds are often higher with flush draws since opponents with top pair or overpairs are likely to continue calling.
Example:
You have Q-J of hearts, and the flop comes 10-9-3 with two hearts. Your implied odds are high because players with top pair will likely keep calling if you hit your flush.
- Straight Draws: Implied odds are also favorable with straight draws, especially when your opponent has a strong but vulnerable hand like top two pair.
Example:
You hold 8-7 of diamonds, and the board shows 10-9-4. If you hit your straight, you can expect to win a big pot from opponents with hands like A-10 or K-10.
Final Thoughts: Mastering Implied Odds in Poker
Implied odds can be a game-changer when you’re chasing draws. By understanding how to calculate them and knowing when to rely on them, you can make more profitable decisions at the table. Remember, poker isn’t just about the cards you’re holding now; it’s about thinking ahead to how much you can win when you hit your hand. Use implied odds wisely, and watch your profits grow!
See you at the tables!
Alon Marcus